Why Don’t We Have Self-Driving Cars Yet?

Why Don’t We Have Self-Driving Cars Yet?


More companies are trying to bring
self-driving cars to the masses than ever before. Yet a truly
autonomous vehicle still doesn’t exist. And it’s not clear if, or
when, our driverless future will arrive. Proponents like Elon Musk have touted
an aggressive timeline but missed their goals and others in the
industry have also missed projections. Well, our goal is to
deploy these vehicles in 2019. So you’ll have the
option to not drive. It’s not happening in 2020. It’s happening today. We
wanted to check in. Where exactly are we
with self-driving cars? And when can we expect them to
be part of our daily lives? The current state of driverless cars
is very interesting because we’ve passed what people refer to as peak
hype and we’ve entered what’s called the trough of disillusionment. Which is, even people within the industry
are saying, gee, it turns out there’s a lot harder than we thought. We’re definitely not anywhere near as far
along as a lot of people thought we would be three years ago. But I think over the last 18 to
24 months, there’s been a real injection of reality. There was a sense maybe a
year or two ago that our algorithms are so good, we’re ready to launch,
we’re gonna launch driverless cars any minute. And then obviously there’s been
these setbacks of people getting killed or accidents happening and now
we’re a lot more cautious. Several big players have begun to walk
back their predictions on how soon we could see this technology. Even Waymo’s Chief External Officer admitted
that the hype around its self-driving cars has
become unmanageable. The technology has come a long way, but
there’s still a lot of work to be done. There’s the perception, which is,
using the sensors to figure out what’s around the vehicle, in
the environment around the vehicle. Prediction, figuring out what those road users
are going to be doing next in the next few seconds. Turns out the perception and especially
prediction are really, really hard problems to solve. Companies tackling
self-driving today are taking two general approaches. Some are building a
self-driving car from the ground up. Others are developing the
brains that drive the car. An early leader was Google, who
started its self-driving car project in 2009. Known as Waymo today, the
company is developing hardware and software that can function as the
brains in a self-driving car. Aurora is taking a similar approach. Founded in 2017 by early players
from Uber, Tesla and Google’s self-driving initiatives, it’s already raised
$620 million in funding from Amazon and other big name investors. Aurora is testing vehicles on the
road in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania and out here in the Bay Area. We don’t
yet let the public in our cars. Our cars are on the road, we have
two of our test operators in there. The technology we’re building can operate
from a compact electric car, to a minivan, to even a
big, long haul truck. Argo AI and Aptiv are examples
of other companies taking a similar approach. Lyft is developing its own
self-driving systems now too and offering self-driving rides on its
app through partnerships in select areas. Self-driving is too big for
just one company and one effort. And if you look at our strategy,
that is why we’re working with partners on the open platform, Aptiv and Waymo,
and why we’re building the tech here. Companies like Tesla, Zoox and
GM, with its Cruise division, are making their own vehicles. Aiming for self-driving cars that
can operate in all environments. This is the engineering
challenge of our generation. We’ve raised seven and a
quarter billion dollars of capital. We have deep integration with both
General Motors and Honda, which we think is central when you’re building
mission critical safety systems and building those in a way that you
can deploy them at very large scale. Cruise, which was acquired by General Motors
in 2016, has been testing its fleet of vehicles in San
Francisco with safety drivers onboard. To give you a sense for the
magnitude of the difference between suburban driving and what we’re doing everyday
on the streets of San Francisco. Our cars on average see more activity
in one minute of San Francisco driving than they see in one
hour of driving in Arizona. Zoox, led by the former chief strategy
officer at Intel, is working on creating an all in one self-driving taxi
system with plans to launch in 2020. Instead of retrofitting cars with
sensors and computers and saying, hey, here’s a self-driving car. We think there’s an opportunity to create
a new type of vehicle that from the very beginning was designed
to move people around autonomously. Nissan and Tesla both have semi-autonomous
systems on the roads today. Tesla’s has been available in beta on
its vehicles since 2015 and drivers have been known to use
the current system hands-free. Tesla’s promising full self-driving software
is just around the corner. It’s going to be tight, but it still
does appear that we’ll be at least in limited, in early access release, of
a feature complete full self-driving feature this year. I think Tesla is
actually a lot further back than they would like the world to to believe they
are because they are, in fact, so much more limited in
terms of their hardware. Others are making self-driving shuttles
that operate along designated routes only or focusing on trucks
with long haul highway routes. And then there are companies
like Ghost and Comma.ai working on aftermarket kits. Essentially hardware that could be installed
in older cars to bring them new self-driving capabilities
one day. For all players in this space, the
path ahead is filled with challenges. Chief among them, proving
the technology is safe. Driverless systems have to meet a very
high safety bar that has to be better than a human before
they’re deployed at scale. There are no federally established
standards or testing protocols for automated driving systems in the U.S. today, but there have
been fatal crashes. A woman named Elaine Herzberg was killed
by an autonomous Uber with a safety driver who was
paying no attention. This woman was crossing the street,
walking her bicycle, should easily have been seen by the autonomous
vehicle, was not, was run over. Nobody stepped on the brakes. In 2016, a Tesla fan named Joshua
Brown died in a crash while using autopilot hands-free in Florida. Other autopilot involved accidents
are now under investigation. Still, the industry is hopeful that
autonomous vehicles will make the roads far safer than they are today. Really, the kind of zero to one moment
for the industry will be when we can remove those safety drivers safely
and the vehicle can operate without the presence of any human. Others, like
Elon Musk, have said it’s almost irresponsible not to have these vehicles
out there because they are safer and will be safer than human drivers. Even if we could say that an
autonomous vehicle was better than a human driver, it doesn’t mean that an autonomous
vehicle is better than a human driver plus all of the advanced
driver assist systems we have. When looking at when the tech could
actually be ready one of the principle metrics touted by companies is the number
of miles driven, but not all miles are created equal
when testing automated systems. You could take an autonomous vehicle and go,
put it on an oval track or just a straight road, and you
could drive 100 million miles. But that’s not really gonna tell you
much about how well the system actually functions because it’s not encountering
the kinds of things that are actually challenging in
a driving environment. Testing self-driving vehicles out on
public roads isn’t enough. They need to be exposed to every
imaginable scenario, so companies rely on simulation. We can create situations that
we’re basically never going to see or very rarely see. So, for example, we might want to
simulate what happens as a bicycle comes through an intersection, runs a red light
and crashes into the side of our car. Turns out that doesn’t happen very
often in the real world, but we want to know that if that happens,
our vehicles are going to do something safe. Basically allow the car to practice
up in the cloud instead of on the road. When you’re testing autonomous
vehicles out on public roads, not only are the people riding in that car
part of the experiment, but so is everybody else around you. And they didn’t
consent to being part of an experiment. I remain concerned that humans
will be used as test dummies. Instead of self-certification and de-regulation
I want to see strong independent safety regulations from the agencies
in front of us today. The self-certification approach did not work
out well for the Boeing 737 Max 8 and now Boeing
is paying the price. We should heed that lesson when it comes
to finding out the best way to deploy autonomous vehicles. Lawmakers held hearings this month to figure
out how to keep the public safe without holding
back self-driving innovation. In September, the National Highway
Traffic Safety Administration released new federal guidelines for
automated driving systems. But they’re only voluntary
suggestions at this point. State legislation is farther along. As of October, 41 states have
either enacted laws or signed executive orders regulating
autonomous vehicles. With regulatory questions looming, it’s
no surprise that self-driving companies are proceeding
cautiously at first. What we’re going to be seeing in
the next several years is more limited deployments in very specific areas
where there’s confidence that the technology can work. I think we’ll
see limited deployments of self-driving vehicles in the next
five years or so. You’ll see these moving goods and
you’ll see them moving people, but you’ll see them specifically
in fleet applications. Aurora says its systems could be
integrated into any vehicle, from fleets of taxis to long haul trucks. The cost of self-driving technology is
another deciding factor for how it will be deployed. Most consumers are never
going to own a vehicle that’s really autonomous because the technology is
expensive and there’s a whole raft of issues around product liability
and making sure that it’s properly maintained and sensors
are calibrated. That’s one reason ride hailing companies Lyft
and Uber are getting in the game. We have
two autonomous initiative. One is the open platform where
we’re connecting Lyft passengers with our partner self-driving vehicles. And so this is Aptiv in Las
Vegas and Waymo in Chandler, Arizona. And then also kind of the product
experience for the tech that you see here, which is Level 5. As AV
companies inch toward the mainstream public perception, simple understanding of the tech
has become another issue that could impact progress. Some in particular in the industry have
done a disservice to the public in overhyping the technology before
it’s really ready. It’s still not very clear to most
people what we mean when we say driverless car. Waymo and General
Motors Cruise Automation are very close to having what they referred to as
level five cars most of the time. In other words, again, they can
in theory function all by themselves. But so far, it seems that they function
like a 15 year old driver hoping to get a driver’s license. There’s a lot of people who think
that you can buy autonomous vehicles today, especially when you can go out and
buy a car, buy an option that’s called full self-driving and
pay for that. You expect that it actually exists. And the fact is, it
does not exist today. With an uncertain timeline and a
history of missed targets, public confusion is no surprise. Despite big developments, most companies
have recognized we are still years away from having truly self-driving cars
as part of our daily lives. One big question is when
is the car ready? You have to have a good sense of
all of the scenarios and all of the situations that the vehicle
will need to encounter. And that just takes time. We expect level four vehicles to
be feasible in small quantities within the next five years. And what that means is you’ll probably
see hundreds or maybe thousands of vehicles out either delivering packages
or moving people through neighborhood or maybe hauling
goods on our freeways. And now, even the experts hesitate
to make promises on when true self-driving will get here. You always have to assume that the user
is going to find a way to misuse the technology. Assume the worst
and then design for that. I think it’s a mistake to be
over promoting the technology, over hyping it when it’s still very much
a work in progress. This is something we need to do
with society, with the community and not at society. And we
take that very seriously. We’re building mission critical safety systems
that are going to have a huge positive impact
on people’s lives. And the tech adage of move fast
and break things most assuredly does not apply to what we’re doing here.

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100 Replies to “Why Don’t We Have Self-Driving Cars Yet?”

  1. The reason why we don't have self-driving cars is not because the AI isn't smart enough, but because we humans are too dumb and careless on the road.

  2. We don't need self driving cars….WE NEED SMART TRAFFIC LIGHTS….
    USING WIFI MAPS FROM EACH CAR TO DETERMINE TIMING.

    STOOPID LIGHTS AND POWERFUL SMARTPHONES

  3. They are trying to fly before they walk. First make all existing cars synchronized with all other cars and make the roads smart and stop lights. Coordinate the traffic flow and the roads via real time data. ONce cars can talk and the traffic flow is synchronized then we might have a shot at autonomous cars in the future.

  4. If self-driving cars aren't dirt cheap by 2030, you're doing something wrong. And how many eyes are you giving these things? You need at least two, just like we have.

  5. the fundamental problem is that you need about 1 trillion miles of data in all sorts of environments to confidently say that this car is safe without user intervention. Therefore, there needs to be a mechanism for companies to share data because it's impossible to accumulate this amount of data in isolation.

  6. "What happened to flying cars?" People stop asking, they've been out since 2017 FFS do a lil bit of research. It's literally 1 click away https://youtu.be/BbImqlqdozk

  7. it's easy to rob a self driving cars, when AI takes your jobs and gives a look at your life worth.
    you've option to live on compensation given by government as UBI or you start rebellion.

  8. Tesla is basically at level 3 now. They're definitely good enough for that. It's the government keeping them from moving up to 4

  9. I don't believe self-driving cars will happen, just for liability reasons, and also because tech companies like the iPhone model which is where they're constantly updating phones and software, but cars can't be done that way. There are too many glitches in software and that will never be fixed, especially when the plan is to always have them be updating. Cars are just not profitable like that, so it's not gonna work. Look at how Boeing has been grounded because of a big flaw in their airline software. With self-driving cars, all it will take is one big major flaw that kills many people to stop it. People are saying they never want to ride on a 747 Max plane. They'll say the same of self-driving cars. Not to mention that the whole "safety" argument of cars is demolished with the new Cybertruck which Elon Musk just released and features this unbreakable steel. Let's just all drive unbreakable steel trapezoid cars and call it a day. No need for upgrading our entire infrastructure for something that's not needed, since humans are fully capable of driving on their own. Also, cities are invest billions of dollars on road constructions that use current car rules, so that's not gonna go to waste. Our road future is already planned for the next 50 years in most places.

    AI in vehicles can still be good for farm work or mining operation and the best use, probably the military. As far as civilian use, I feel like it will always be cheaper and better to have humans driving it. No need for software upgrades, if humans already know how to drive. That being said, another reason why it's important to always have human drivers, is because that skill would be lost if people stopped practicing driving. It's like saying no one is ever gonna learn how to write by hand, because we can all just type. It would weaken our fingers and we couldn't even write our simplest name. The same would happen with cars if generations of people stopped learning driving skills. It's still important and useful and safer and more freer to have people drive their own cars, so I don't the self-driving future will ever come. It'll always be cheaper to build a tiny cybergolf cart that can be driven by human than to make a self-driving anything.

  10. Tesla is limited on their hardware? Based off of what information 😂 Their personalized self driving chip, after peer evaluation is said to be at least 2 years ahead of it's autonomous peers.

  11. They are still young. Let them get some experience under their tires first before making them be adults and do all the driving. Impatient people 🙄

  12. My concerns with Self-Driving Vehicles is making sure the AI in the vehicle recognizes traffic lights, road signs, etc. Also, what if the sensors on the vehicle, fail, there has to be a feature where the person can manually drive the car. Aside from that, I think that Self-Driving vehicles are a great idea. Especially for those humans who just can't seem to put down that smartphone and just have to be texting and/or talking while they drive, despite knowing that it's dangerous.

  13. The younger generation may not realize this but self driving Cars have been "about 5 years away", for over half a century. I remember watching a documentary in 1995, showing a company that had developed a self driving car, driving on windy roads, highways, and parking lots. In the documentary the company said by 2000 fully self driving cars would be on the road, and by 2005 almost every car would be self driving.

    Of course even 25 years ago the technology was not new. If you check out "the history of self driving cars" article on Wikipedia you'll realize self driving Cars have been in Beta testing since the 1930's (90 years).

    It's a challenge, smart people need to not give up.

  14. The way this is framed is very reminiscent of FUD: So much fear of misuse of self-driving features, emphasis on uncertainty of when FSD will be achieved, and doubt about the readiness of the technology. Not really a balanced presentation, nor useful information for investors, consumers, or decision makers.

  15. I imagine that until Tesla starts rolling out tons of their semi trucks to capture relevant data from professional drivers for a few years, it is a pie in the sky idea.

  16. Because lawyers and big corporations won't let you have it until they know they can have a hegemony on self driving cars.

  17. That's so ridiculous, Tesla has 500 000 cars collecting data to train the self-driving AI and Tesla doesn't even pay for it, customers do. Tesla cars have ridden literally billions of miles on real roads collecting data, not a single word about that. And here we have a guy talking about simulation being better for training because you can simulate some impossible scenarios. We know about the world much less than we think, there are thousands of surprises on the road every day, we can't simulate what we don't understand. If the guy could make a perfect simulation he would have already solved the self driving problem.

  18. This video sponsored by everybody who hates tesla.
    You cant simulate all of life. You just cant. The benefits of the real world fleet worth of data is completely ignored in this hit piece. Also assumes everybody would need expensive lidar which isn't yet proven to be the case.

  19. IMO this is another case where we use technology to solve a problem that doesn’t exist. Why driverless? What’s wrong with the driver? Sure there are accidents and a number of deaths annually but there are accidents when people walk on the sidewalk too. I can definitely see technology to continue assisting but for the life of ne I can’t see a scenario where a school bus full of children will be driverless. Don’t believe the hype by Elon Musk or whomever. Maybe 100 years from now but not anytime soon.

  20. As a software developer, I have no illusions about building complex systems that don't mess up in spite of our best efforts (Boeing 737 MAX). I'm certainly not surprised that the hype is dying somewhat. As far as driverless trucks and taxis are concerned, the drivers who are put out of work may not take it lying down. It would not be difficult for them to learn how to disable autonomous vehicles from the roadside by jamming the sensors. Then we will be looking at a brand new class of crime – interfering with the robots. In a world where machines replace people, this is predictable. In the science fiction fantasy world, Frank Herbert's "Dune" trilogy, includes a background story called the "Butlerian Jihad" – a rising up of the people against the machines. This is no longer science fiction, I think it is arguably inevitable.

  21. Uhhh this video is littered with overqualified doormats, and I would considered this a tesla hit piece. There is no mention of the fact that Tesla is vision only, whereas most of its competitors are lidar + sensors + vision. This video was designed to make tesla competitors look good. Typical behavior for cnbc, or any other mainstream media outlet tbh.

  22. and why don't we have a flying car in every driveway? In both cases we have to look at the law community. As long as we have lawyers we won't have either.

  23. Why not create a standard protocol like TCP/IP where all cars, buses, traffic signals, etc can talk to each other and share sensor data. Oh wait, money.

  24. Good article but you can sure tell there are Tesla haters even in the same field. Even the editing was done so negative generalities had a Tesla on screen while being said. Seemed like some rather jealous people or simply sandy vaginas. Do like it then beat em.

  25. What a poopoo video. The trillion dollar a day petro industrial complex will do anything to keep us from moving into the future.

  26. "We choose to go to the Moon in this decade and do the other things, not because they are easy, but because they are hard; because that goal will serve to organize and measure the best of our energies and skills, because that challenge is one that we are willing to accept, one we are unwilling to postpone, and one we intend to win…"

  27. Where is obsession with self-driving cars comes from?

    Autopilots in large airliners have been capable of autonomous take-off, flight and landing for years but we still have human pilots in charge.

  28. It is definitely not an "if", it is a when. Self-driving will come after electric cars become the majority over gasoline cars here in the US, so 2025-2030

  29. Why because discernment

    Just waiting until the body of Christ Is out of here then you the world can do what ever you want;

    Get your self a free ticket upward;

    “For by grace are ye saved through faith; and that not of yourselves: it is the gift of God: Not of works, lest any man should boast.”
    ‭Ephesians 2:8-9 KJV‬

    “Moreover, brethren, I declare unto you the gospel which I preached unto you, which also ye have received, and wherein ye stand; By which also ye are saved, if ye keep in memory what I preached unto you, unless ye have believed in vain. For I delivered unto you first of all that which I also received, how that Christ died for our sins according to the scriptures; And that he was buried, and that he rose again the third day according to the scriptures:”
    ‭1 Corinthians 15:1-4 KJV‬

    “In whom ye also trusted, after that ye heard the word of truth, the gospel of your salvation: in whom also after that ye believed, ye were sealed with that holy Spirit of promise, Which is the earnest of our inheritance until the redemption of the purchased possession, unto the praise of his glory.”
    ‭Ephesians 1:13-14 KJV‬

    “For the Lord himself shall descend from heaven with a shout, with the voice of the archangel, and with the trump of God: and the dead in Christ shall rise first: Then we which are alive and remain shall be caught up together with them in the clouds, to meet the Lord in the air: and so shall we ever be with the Lord. Wherefore comfort one another with these words.”
    ‭1 Thessalonians 4:16-18 KJV‬

    “Behold, I shew you a mystery; We shall not all sleep, but we shall all be changed, In a moment, in the twinkling of an eye, at the last trump: for the trumpet shall sound, and the dead shall be raised incorruptible, and we shall be changed. For this corruptible must put on incorruption, and this mortal must put on immortality. So when this corruptible shall have put on incorruption, and this mortal shall have put on immortality, then shall be brought to pass the saying that is written, Death is swallowed up in victory.”
    ‭1 Corinthians 15:51-54 KJV‬

  30. That wasn't the car's fault she was killed because she was being stupid and anyone else in that situation more than likely would have killed her too

  31. Self driving cars are the future. There are seriously like no drawbacks for a future with self driving cars. It would benefit humanity so much.

  32. Self Driving Cars should also test their tech on Philippines NCR, Manila… Where it can learn many scenarios in the road like swerving, Motorcycle Cuts and too much Overtake and Road Rage!

  33. Totally self-driven cars will never come to fruition. Think about how much money cities, States and the federal government make by issuing tickets for failed stops, speeding, aggressive driving, and the like. Do you really think they are just going to give up that free Revenue?

  34. Because leaving your safety on the road on an AI to take care of is stupid?

    I dunno guys I had to use all my brain cells to come up with such a sophisticated anwser to such a complex question.

  35. We'll have them when they are all self driving, when they all communicate with each other and avoid accidents, pedestrian included.

  36. Have you noticed all the self driving car scenes were filmed when there were no other cars around. LOL. We want to see them perform in real life rush hour traffic. LOL

  37. People kinda need to realise that AI is hard to train perfectly, they're like humans learning depending on their learning algorithm. Computers right now are not powerful enough to effectively calculate thousands or even millions of weights, activation functions within a millisecond (depending on the design of the neural network and power of the computer). In my vision, if these companies get access to "cutting edge" technology like quantum computing, AI would drastically improve and fully self driving car would arrive sooner than later. Programming is hard.

  38. Teslas car on autopilot is 10 times safer than a normal car. Additionally Tesla is the only company that has 5 billion miles a year that is being added to their network. These other companies are doing simulations to try to figure out how to become fully autonomous. Tesla has actual field hours and builds into itself, every car sold adds more and more miles into the network as well.

  39. do they know the basics of the autonomous automatic subconscious brain and further can they securely tap them and make them functional

  40. I bet this video would have been less negative about Tesla if they received lots of advertising dollars from them. Corporate news sucks.

  41. I just don't think we're even close to the technology we need to make this safe and reliable. It's not as simple as putting a car on digital rails. Even relatively unintelligent person would recognize a woman in Arizona and move to avoid her, rather than not classifying her because she wasn't in a crosswalk. Yes they can fix that error. But until machines can think and reason and learn like a human can, it's all just finding and filling the loopholes. I don't care how many pictures you show a computer of people. If there's even the chance that a child with a big backpack and crutches might not trigger in the database, then the technology isn't ready.

  42. Its not that difficult for anybody or any system to be better than an american driver considering how crappy they are

  43. The industrial prison/jail complex as well as local states and government would loose way to much money if they actually had driverless cars. I believe the technology is in reach but it is being held back. Just like solar panels and 3d printing. It's all there but the oligarchs have a lot of money and payed for a lot of politicians to put obstacles in the way. My two cents. I'll also add Quantum computing and 5g is coming fast. It will be an enormous catalyst I think.

  44. They do this because they don’t trust any of you. 🙂 they think they can do everything better than you. And most of you are so happy and willing to make them right.

  45. They never talked about these Driverless cars when they are 12 years old used selling for $800 with a wire holding up the muffler.

    Even if they get it right,then what?

    My Intel i7 justs died after 5 years without a warning and never drove over a million potholes in winters and summers.

    A new car is $40,000 and a 10 year old used car with 150k is $2000 for a reason.

    A few hundred thousand $2000 used driverless cars will be entertaining in the future.

  46. Tesla is a data company that manufactures cars that collect road and driving data that it will use and it sell to future self diving system manufacturers. Present Tesla’s on the road and mere data collection devises we as purchasers are partially financing. I’m a Tesla owner and okay with that. I’m happy to be part of the development for future full self driving vehicles.

  47. Who needs them when youre skilled enough?🤷‍♂️ When people use auto pilot in their teslas, they get passed up by so many going nowhere in traffic 😂

  48. We don’t have self driving cars yet for the same two reasons some people can’t drive:
    1. They can’t see
    2. They can’t think

  49. Still maturing the software. The estimated time has always been 5-8 years from now. I don't know why NBC keeps pushing this narrative of it being late or not happening "any time soon". BTW… If you are interested in protecting yourself from automation, medicare, and ending corruption in Washington, #YoutubeAndrewYang

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